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Victor Weintraub is the President of First Charter Financial Corporation. A noted economist he writes this blog to keep our clients informed on economic issues that can have an impact on commercial Real Estate investment and most importantly on interest rates and the capital markets.

Mr. Weintraub holds a Bachelor's Degree in engineering from New York University. He received his MBA from Columbia University, Graduate School of Business. He has been in the commercial financing business for more than fourty years.

In addition to his economic writing Mr. Weintraub has written several books and novels. including the Robert Hazard spy thriller series. He is also President of First Capitol books a publisher of E books and print books distributed throughout the English-speaking world.


CONTACT FIRST CHARTER FINANCIAL.

ACHIEVE YOUR GOALS

We are a commercial mortgage company. We do not deal with the general public. We arrange mortgages for commercial properties all over the US. We are a price leader and we are less expensive than your local bank.

We are presently promoting $5,000,000 fixed rate mortgages at 4%, 10 year term, non recourse for stabilized properties. You cannot get close to that from your bank. Our average loan is $8,000,000.

We do every kind of property, general commercial, multi-family, hotels. We do every kind of loan including conventional, agency, SBA, USDA, Fanny May & Freddy Mack, and bridge loans.

Unlike companies that you find on the Internet, we are a lender and we do not sell leads or referrals. We are the real deal. We do not do individual residential loans. We do not do loans under $2,000,000. People do not search for us on their cell phone or on social media. Questions? Call Victor (480) 970-0990.

HOTEL FINANCING

Hotel financing is a specialty for us. We understand hotels both large and small. We have done financing for flagged and un-flagged properties in various locations around the country.

Hotels are different from other commercial real estate because there are no leases and tenants. A hotel is a lodging business inside a special purpose property. Because of this the underwriting parameters are different.

STRIP CENTERS AND BIG BOX

We have always recognized that Strip Centers are the backbone of retail. From the standpoint of long-term stability and yield the neighborhood anchored strip has, over time, shown an enviable record of cash flow. They have also had growth benefiting from inflation. A big box is just a strip on steroids with some credit. We do loans for all retail.

ECONOMIC NEWS LETTER SEPT. 2019

THE INTEREST RATE INVERSION IS CREATING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR REFINANCING

We have not discussed the economy for some time. Over the past several years economic activity has been good. The economy has been growing and interest rates have been historically reasonable.

Now for the first time in many years things have begun to change. The economy in other parts of the world has begun to slow substantially. Europe has gone from slow growth to a flat or even a declining economy led by Germany. Brittan is struggling with Brexit. The other European economies are trying to stay positive.

We now have a trade war with China. The U. S. has imposed tariffs, China has devalued their currency. American manufacturers are scurrying around to establish other sources of supply for their goods. The White House keeps making positive statements. In reality nothing positive has happened. I do not expect anything positive to happen until after elections next year. China looks upon the situation that they may be negotiating with a new President.

In the mean time our economy has begun to show signs of importing the economic weakness from the rest of the world. After 10 years of easy money and high liquidity we now have an inversion of interest rates. An inversion of interest rates is when the short term Treasury interest rates are higher than the long term interest rates. It is unusual for this to happen after a long period of easy money but here it is. The 10 year treasury and the 2 year Treasury are both at 1.45% and they have been inverted.

It is my opinion that they will continue to decline. There has been a very strong correlation between an interest rate inversion and an economic recession. This has been especially true at times when the FED has eased rates as they just did. It is my opinion that the U. S. Economy is going to have a recession probably in the next 6 to 9 months. Economic activity will slow. The stock market will fall. More importantly interest rates will continue to decline.

I can not give you a projection of a low for rates or exactly when it will happen. What I can tell you that this is a very good time to refinance your properties. You will benefit from the good economic times that we have had and be able to take advantage of the current low interest rates. A very good combination to refinance.

We have been doing loans for stabilized properties at 4% fixed rate (4.15 APR) and below, 10 year term, 30 year amortization and non recourse. These are far better rates than you can get from your bank. Call us to discuss your financing needs. We are always here to get you the best deal. As well as talk about the economy.


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